La Niña, a weather pattern characterized by colder ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, will bring below-average snowfall to DC this winter. While predictions for this year’s snowfall vary, according to the Washington Post, DC generally gets less snow during La Niña winters.
While the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang predicted 10-18 inches, other guesses trend toward less snow. Todd Crawford from Atmospheric G2 predicted a mere 6 inches of snow. Similarly, Paul Pastelok from AccuWeather expected DC will get about 8 inches.
This winter, the DMV is predicted to have specifically a weak La Niña effect, which on average brings 9.7 inches of snow to the DC area. The strength of a La Niña is determined by the amount the ocean temperature varies from normal. A weak La Niña will vary less than a strong La Niña will. The last weak La Niña year, 2022-2023, only totaled one inch of snow. However, weak La Niña patterns can give way to other weather trends.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of sea surface temperatures across the North Pacific that influences wind patterns and also contributes to winter weather and snowfall. Its index can flip positive (warm) and negative (cool), but continues to be strongly negative this year, as it was last year. A negative PDO can cause warmer trends in the south and east, but cooler, drier winters along the East Coast and towards the north. In the last 10 years, only three winters have seen above-average snowfall. Two of these winters occurred during the times that the PDO flipped positive.
While all signs point to having little snow, the District has experienced large snowfalls in the past. Due to DC’s unique position between the Chesapeake Bay, the Atlantic Ocean, and Appalachian Mountains, if conditions all align, it is the perfect setup for snow storms.
Students and staff at Jackson-Reed have expressed a desire for a snow season this winter. Sophomore Linda Prikk, who moved here temporarily from Estonia, said she misses her home winters: “I want snow! I want to experience an Estonian winter!” English teacher Caroline Szakats shared a similar sentiment, “I would be sad if it didn’t snow because the best part of winter is being out in the snow and going on snowy walks. It also gives you the excuse of a break to be with your family and be at home.”
Despite the predictions, weather models can be inaccurate. Last year, meteorologists predicted the El Niño year would bring 18 inches of snow, but the winter ended with only 8 inches. According to the Washington Post, it’s notoriously hard to be accurate on weather models and predictions due to the uncertainty of weather and a need for improved models, so there’s still hope for more snow.